Draw the curve, or type into the box below: it holds the drawn
years as a series of annual real returns in percent, one per year,
starting at the age shown, or as age:value pairs such as 70:-20,
one point per pair. The box lists the years as pairs while there
are gaps between them, and as a plain series once they are filled
in. Undrawn years follow the rate settings
on the left; drawn years override them, and the chart above
recomputes as you draw. Edit the series or paste a new one over it,
then press apply series; values are kept to a tenth of a point
between -60% and 69%, and anything rounded, clamped, or dropped is
reported next to the button.
Spending is computed as if the whole path were known from the start,
so a historical series shows what foresight of those years would have
supported, not what someone living through them could have known to
spend. Shuffle order keeps the same returns and only changes their
order, so any change in spending comes from timing alone. Connect
points fills the undrawn years between two drawn ones with a straight
line. The y-axis range is a lens: it never changes stored values, and
values outside it draw pinned at the edge.
from age
y-axis
to
%
Draw the curve, or type into the box below: it holds the drawn
years as a series of changes in spending from the year before, in
percent, one per year, starting at the age shown, or as age:value
pairs such as 70:-1, one point per pair, with connect points drawing
the line between them. The box lists the years as pairs while there
are gaps between them, and as a plain series once they are filled
in. The first
retirement year is the anchor that later changes are measured from,
so no change applies to it; with nothing drawn, from age shows the
year after the anchor. Undrawn years follow the Spending tilt setting
on the left; drawn years override it, and the chart above recomputes
as you draw. Edit the series or paste a new one over it, then press
apply series; values are kept to a tenth of a point between -60% and
60%, and anything rounded, clamped, or dropped is reported next to
the button. Values left of the dashed retirement marker are stored
but inactive (the dotted line is the setting, the dashes are drawn
values): no tilt applies during the working years, where spending
does not change from one year to the next. Move the retirement age
to bring stored values into the scenario. Connect points fills the
undrawn years between two drawn ones with a straight line. The y-axis
range is a lens: narrowing it never changes stored values, and values
outside it draw pinned at the edge.
If you are still working
Enter, in today's dollars: age now, end age
(the age the scenario runs to, one you are unlikely to outlive;
couples see If you are planning as a couple),
household income (all wages, minus Social Security
and Medicare tax), starting portfolio, and any
legacy you want left at the end age. Enter 0 for
legacy to spend everything.
Enter Social Security and pension in today's
dollars, with the ages they begin. Enter 0 if you have none.
Take the Social Security amount and its age together from
one line of your SSA statement: the age-62, the
full-retirement-age, or the age-70 line. If you will stop
working well before you claim, see Notes.
A spouse's benefits go under Spouse (see If you
are planning as a couple).
Set the portfolio growth rate: a compound real return, after
inflation, historically roughly 2% to 7%. No one knows it
in advance, so try several values and watch how far the
spending level moves.
Enter the retirement age you have in mind and your
savings rate, the share of household income you
currently save. These two are yours to choose; everything
above describes your situation.
Read the chart. If there is a step at the retirement age,
press one of the two solve buttons. One finds the
retirement age at which spending comes closest to level at
your savings rate. The other finds the savings rate that
levels spending at your chosen retirement age.
Hover or tap any year on the chart for that year's
detail.
If you are already retired
Press Start from: retired (top right) and replace its
numbers with yours. Or set retirement age equal to
your age now. Either way, the household income
field and the two solve buttons gray out: with no
working years they do not apply.
Enter, in today's dollars: age now, end age
(the age the scenario runs to, one you are unlikely to outlive;
couples see If you are planning as a couple),
starting portfolio, and any legacy you want
left at the end age. Enter 0 to spend everything.
Enter Social Security and pension with their
start ages. For a benefit already being paid, enter your
age now as its start age; any earlier age gives the
same result. For a benefit not yet claimed, take the amount
and its age together from one line of your SSA statement,
and see Notes about earnings that have stopped.
Set the portfolio growth rate: a compound real return, after
inflation, historically roughly 2% to 7%. No one knows it
in advance, so try several values.
Read Retirement spending above the chart: the level
annual amount, before tax, that your portfolio plus future
income can sustain through the end age, at the growth rate
you entered.
If you are semi-retired
For this tool, you are semi-retired if you are still
working, spending your whole paycheck, and covering the
rest of your spending from the portfolio. Follow the
already-retired setup, with retirement age equal to
your age now.
Enter your remaining pay as an income stream: a
pension slot, or an Other income slot under
More income in Advanced. Amount per year,
start age at your age now, stop age at the first age
without a paycheck.
The tool computes one level spending amount for every year
from now to the end age. In years when the paycheck
falls short of it, the difference is a portfolio
withdrawal. There is nothing extra to enter.
If you are planning as a couple
The tool runs on one timeline: yours, and the end age
is the end of the scenario, not a date of death. Set it to your
age in the year the scenario should end; if your spouse is
younger and plans further, that is your age in the year
they reach their horizon.
Enter the spouse's age now under Spouse. The
start and stop ages on the spouse's Social Security and
pension are then the spouse's own ages.
If a pension pays nothing to a survivor, give it a stop age
at the owner's assumed death.
For a second earner, add the wages together while you are
both working. If one of you retires later, enter the later
earnings in an Other income slot with a stop age.
Those slots begin at their start age or your retirement
age, whichever is later, and their ages are on your own
timeline.
Once a year
Update age now and starting portfolio, and
anything else that has changed.
Still working: press solve next to savings
rate again. The new rate levels spending from the
portfolio you actually have. Or re-solve retirement
age and watch your feasible date move.
Retired: the new Retirement spending is your
spending level for the year ahead.
Press copy link (top right) to make a bookmarkable
link of your inputs. Otherwise only this tab's Back history
keeps them.
Notes
Payments happen at the start of each year: a
start age is the first age paid (or your retirement age, if
later), a stop age is the first age no longer paid, and the
chart's last row is the scenario end, a balance with no
payment.
Income with a start age before your retirement age is not paid
until you retire.
If your retirement age ends up past your Social Security start
age, the tool claims at retirement instead and rescales the
amount by the official claiming factors; a note under the field
shows what it pays.
Stopping work years before claiming Social Security can lower
the benefit below your SSA statement's figure, because the
statement assumes you keep earning until you claim. Estimate
the benefit with the remaining work years zeroed out, for
example at ssa.tools, and enter that amount.
Household income is entered minus Social Security and Medicare
tax because that tax ends with the paycheck; leaving it out
keeps working and retirement spending comparable.
Income amounts are per year, not per month. The dollar boxes
accept arithmetic, so a benefit quoted as $2,853 a month can be
typed as 2853*12, and two salaries as 85000+42000. An income box
shows the monthly equivalent to the left of the amount you typed.
An empty or zero box shows nothing, and an amount long enough to
need the room takes it back, dropping the equals sign first.
Two more income streams on your own timeline are under More
income in Advanced. A stop age ends a stream early;
leave it blank to run to the end age. For a pension with no
inflation adjustment, see Advanced.
If income starts late and borrowing is off, spending can step
up during retirement; the caption under Retirement
spending names those years.
Amounts are in today's dollars unless you check Future
dollars under Advanced, and before tax: withdrawals
from traditional retirement accounts are spendable only after
income tax, which this tool does not model. Nor does it model
account types, required minimum distributions, or
randomness in returns.